William Morrow editors have a conversation with Peter Schechter
By Peter Schechter Tuesday, 18 November 2008 21:06
Q: Certain fictional elements of PIPELINE came to pass in real life after you completed writing the book (increased evidence of an expansionist Russia, the political ascendency of a female from Alaska, etc). Do you keep a crystal ball on your writing desk?A: A crystal ball with lady luck dressed as a genie in it! Seriously, I think that the political consulting I’ve been doing for twenty years has a lot to do with it. Advising politicians, reading polls, talking to analysts about pitfalls and dangers has given me good antennae to foresee the issues just over the horizon. To smell the problems around the corner. To predict the pitfalls and opportunities coming next week, next month or next year. The first book was about the spread of weapons of mass destruction just before that issue hit the front pages. Now Pipeline highlights the subjects that are sure to dominate the coming years. Natural gas as the energy of the future – just ask Boone Pickens. Russia’s dominance of our headlines. And the geostrategic choices forced on us by a crippling dependency on foreign energy.
Q: How large of a role do you think natural gas will play as the US reshapes its energy policy?
A: Huge. Natural gas is far less dirty than oil and can be used for a variety of purposes – namely electricity generation, heating and transportation. But it is this last sector – transportation – which makes gas so important. Think about it. More than 70% of US imported oil is used in transportation. Of all of the domestic energy resources available (domestic oil, natural gas, nuclear, coal, wind, solar, hydro, geo-thermal and bio fuels), only natural gas is easily used as a transportation fuel today. Electric cars like the General Motors “Volt” use battery power, but they are light-duty vehicles. You can’t run an 18-wheeler on battery power. It Indeed, of all the oil used for transportation, 38% is used by fleet vehicles – trucks, buses, municipal and utility vehicles. About one out of every three barrels of imported oil goes into the manufacture of diesel fuel for tractor-trailers to move goods around the country. If, over the next decade, trucking companies large and small replaced their diesel vehicles with trucks running on either Compressed or Liquified Natural Gas, we would very nearly meet our goal of cutting oil imports by 30% right there.
Q: As an international political observer, how do you think relations between the United States and Russia play out over the next few years?
A: Well everybody talks a lot about Iran and the Middle East but I am very worried about Russia. Like Germany after the First World War, Russia feels mistreated by the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This huge country of 11 time zones and infinite riches has the ability to strike out just to show its power unless we have a serious diplomatic strategy to engage and coax Russia into the family of responsible nations. But we also have to realize that, at the moment, Russia is entirely dependent on oil and gas exports for its wealth and power. When is the last time you saw a refrigerator or a leather jacket that had “Made in Russia” printed on its label? All they have are commodities and extractive industries. When we start reducing foreign energy consumption – and I am convinced that with Barack Obama this will happen – the world will face a Russia that is even more restless and angry.
Q: PIPELINE takes readers inside huge industrial companies, foreign legislative bodies, and the White House. How much research did you do specifically for this novel, and how much did you draw upon your own professional experiences?
A: Both. Many of my professional experiences have been advising very powerful people. I’ve been in meetings that I probably should have been kicked out of. I’ve watched decisions being taken that I would have given anything not to be in the room. But witnessing all this has given me a deeper understanding of the governing process, of the political trade-offs to be made and the responsibility of making tough decisions. Still, this also book required a lot of research. In the years when I was writing the novel, natural gas had not yet made it to the big leagues. Many believed that repeated boom and bust cycles with gas made the energy unreliable. But the more I read and investigated, the more convinced I became that natural gas’ clean burn, its use in transportation and its relevance for electricity generation will make it the energy of the future.
Q: The media plays a significant role in PIPELINE. With newspapers cutting jobs, cable television promoting partisan spin, and bloggers commonly portraying rumor as fact, how can a besieged press deliver accurate and relevant information in the 21st century?
A: The internet has opened up a myriad of options, but it has also made things confusing. Differentiating fun from reliable is becoming increasingly difficult. As a result, I am convinced that, rightly managed, the big news brands – New York Times, CNN, National Public Radio just to name three across the spectrum – will actually do well in the cybernetic age of bloggers and spin. People will want brands that can be believed and outlets with a history of accuracy. The media isn’t dead yet.